Democrats still poised to make gains, but poll shows warning signs for just how many

The poll finds that while Democrats still have the advantage in the midterm elections, there are warning signs about how many seats they may win. Democrats retain significant midterm electoral advantages, with key data pointing to them being the favorites to win control of the U.S. House. But, there are indications of why a potential wave could be limited.

The cost of living continues to be top of mind overall with a third of people saying they've experienced financial hardship in the past year and 4 in 10 saying their personal finances have gotten worse. 'The economy is at the top of my list right now,' said Shun Maurice, a 47-year-old from Arizona who participated in the poll. He's an independent who leans toward Democrats and said high food and gas prices are a strain.

They're too expensive for everybody, no matter who you voted for,' he said. 'They're just too expensive for the American people in general, and I don't like that.' Preserving democracy also continues to resonate with Democrats and independents, while immigration is the biggest concern for self-described MAGA supporters.

The poll of 1,289 registered voters was conducted Oct. 19-20. When registered voters are mentioned, the margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. When likely voters are mentioned, it is +/- 3.8 points. Most don't think Trump is doing a good job and don't like him.

This was the first survey this cycle that Marist applied a likely voter screen, and on multiple questions, likely voters were, within the margin of error, slightly less likely than registered voters to disapprove of the president. Likely voters overall were also slightly less likely to want Democrats to run Congress.

Democrats retain the edge on the congressional ballot. Democrats also had a strong advantage on which party's candidate people said they are more likely to vote for in their district if the election were held today, known as the generic congressional ballot. Among registered voters, it was a 10-point advantage. With likely voters, it was 8 points, still indicative of Democratic gains.

When Democrats have had that kind of lead on the congressional ballot, they have historically done very well. On average, it was +7 in 2018 and +12 in 2006. In both years, Democrats won the House with at least 30 seats flipped.

That said, an equal share, 53%, of registered and likely voters said they 'strongly disapprove' of the job Trump is doing, tied with last month as the highest ever in the poll. Trump's favorability rating is even lower, just 37% of likely voters have a favorable impression of Trump, while 59% have a negative one.