Yamal, Kane, Mbappe contend for Ballon d'Or

The race for football's top individual award narrows to three contenders ahead of Monday's ceremony at the London Palladium.

Lamine Yamal, 19, Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane are the leading names. Yamal and Mbappe have both publicly backed their own cases. Kane has not campaigned for himself. French data analysis firm Avisia gives Yamal a 23 percent probability, Kane 21 percent and Mbappe 19 percent, tied with 2024 winner Rodri. Lionel Messi follows at 18 percent. Avisia said its model correctly identified the top five for the 2025 award, which went to Ousmane Dembele. Bookmakers put Kane at roughly 70 percent.

Opinion among players and coaches splits along club lines. Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone said Messi deserves the award: "After the World Cup, he played at his age.. No doubt about it." Former Italy defender Marco Materazzi said, "With all due respect to Yamal, I think Messi showed, at 38 years old, he's in a different league." Jude Bellingham, himself shortlisted, backed Kane, saying, "He works so hard for it, and he's a very honest and hard-working person." Anthony Gordon, who plays with Yamal at Barcelona, called his performances "ridiculous." Aurelien Tchouameni said Mbappe had "an incredible season."

Mbappe topped La Liga with 25 goals and the Champions League with 15. He also won the World Cup Golden Boot and set the tournament record with 12 career goals. Kane scored 73 goals last season, the most since Messi's 82 in 2011-12, and won the Bundesliga with Bayern Munich. Yamal won the World Cup with Spain and La Liga with Barcelona, though injuries limited his statistics.

Title pedigree matters in the voting. Only four of the previous 19 winners did not collect a Champions League, World Cup, European Championship or Copa America in their award year. Yamal is seeking to become the youngest winner, a mark held by Ronaldo, who was 21 in 1997.

The ceremony takes place Monday at the London Palladium.