Lions favored over one-win Dolphins in Sunday matchup
Detroit leads the prediction markets at 75%, while Miami's offense struggles to keep games close despite a recent defensive turnaround.
By Simon Bennett ·
The Detroit Lions hold a commanding 75% chance of defeating the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, according to prediction market data from Polymarket. The odds reflect the stark contrast in current form between the two teams. Detroit is coming off a win over the Minnesota Vikings that kept the 1972 Miami Dolphins as the only perfect season in NFL history. Miami, by comparison, has won just one game this season.
The Lions' defense has been inconsistent throughout the 2026 season, but a recent injury to Jack Campbell in Week 8 appears to have sharpened their focus. Detroit limited the Vikings in their last outing. Campbell will sit out Sunday's game, though his recovery has been encouraging. The SportsLine projection model, which has made a 60-51 record on top-rated picks since 2024, simulates a Detroit victory in 73% of scenarios.
Miami's situation is more complex. The Dolphins have not been blown out recently. Each of their last four contests was decided by a single possession. This defensive stability provides a platform to challenge Detroit's high-powered offense. However, the question remains whether quarterback Malik Willis can generate enough points to stay competitive. The SportsLine model gives Miami a 27% chance to win.
The spread is a point of interest for bettors. Polymarket places the odds at 53% for Detroit to win by more than 6.5 points. Only one of Miami's last three margins exceeded that threshold. Two of Detroit's five wins have covered that spread, but both of their last two victories fell short of the 6.5-point mark. The model predicts a seven-point or larger Detroit win in 57% of simulations.
Total points are nearly a coin flip. The Lions rank first in the league in yards per game and third in points per game. Miami's offense, which has struggled to sustain drives, could control the clock to keep the score down. The SportsLine model sees the total exceeding 50.5 points in 64% of simulations. However, the market is split almost evenly, with 50% for over and 51% for under.
The game is scheduled for Sunday afternoon. Fans can trade on these outcomes via Polymarket, which is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The platform offers risk management tools such as trading breaks and funding limits for users.
