Moldova Overtakes Ukraine in Race for EU Membership
New Commission roadmaps show Moldova expected to finalize its accession treaty in 2028, while Ukraine trails further behind in reform progress.
By Alyssa Parker ·
Moldova has moved ahead of Ukraine in the European Union accession process, according to the 2026 enlargement report and accompanying roadmaps released by the European Commission. The new documents project that Moldova will complete work on its accession treaty in 2028. Ukraine is expected to lag significantly behind its neighbor, placing it last among the four leading candidates in the current enlargement cycle.
The Commission’s analysis ranks Montenegro first in the group, with Albania second and Moldova third. Montenegro is projected to conclude accession negotiations this year and have a treaty ready by the end of 2026. Albania’s treaty is planned for 2028. Ukraine follows at a distance, with the gap widening as Moldova accelerates its reforms.
Readiness scores illustrate the shift in momentum. Montenegro has reached an average score of 3.98, a level the EU describes as sufficient for full membership. Three years ago, Montenegro stood at 3.1, Ukraine at 2.3, and Moldova at 1.9. Since that time, Moldova has added nearly a full point to its score. Ukraine has gained only 0.2 points over the same period. The Commission noted that Ukraine’s score was raised slightly this year, but improvement in some areas occurred despite the actions of Ukrainian authorities rather than because of them.
The report highlights a change in pace among the frontrunners. Montenegro, Albania, and Moldova sharply accelerated their reforms as the EU demonstrated a willingness to expand. Ukraine slowed down during the same period. The Commission maintains that Ukraine remains in the leading group for political reasons, even if this delays progress for other candidates. However, the analysis warns that the gap risks becoming permanent unless Kyiv increases its reform speed immediately.
In 2025, Kyiv pushed for a fast-track political accession linked to the war and peace negotiations. The idea aimed to reach a point of no return before completing all necessary reforms. Brussels rejected the proposal, insisting that reforms remain a prerequisite for membership. The Commission continues to make allowances for wartime conditions, noting difficulties for the Verkhovna Rada to hold votes during air-raid alerts. Critics argue this explanation is questionable, as alerts have not prevented parliament from addressing other reform agendas.
The analysis draws a parallel to 2013, when Ukraine and Moldova both sought visa-free travel to the EU. At that time, Kyiv was unwilling to implement required reforms, leading the EU to grant visa-free status to Moldova while Ukraine waited three more years. The stakes are higher now, with full membership on the line. European Pravda calculated last year that at its current pace, Ukraine would need more than 20 years to reach basic alignment. The geopolitical window opened by Russia’s aggression is unlikely to allow such a delay.
Ukraine began showing signs of quickening its pace this autumn, according to the Commission. The priority areas are rule of law, human rights, and anti-corruption. Moldova pulled ahead in these areas through specific changes. As evidence of current paralysis, the analysis points to a bill introducing a register of bank accounts and safe deposit boxes, a requirement for joining the Single Euro Payments Area. The bill has failed to pass parliament, with some opponents describing themselves as pro-European.
