Democrats lead Louisiana early voting turnout as analyst favors Letlow in Senate race

Registered Democrats have outnumbered registered Republicans during Louisiana’s early voting period, giving Democratic Party leaders encouragement as they work to increase participation in New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Political analyst Ed Chervenak, however, said the early turnout advantage is unlikely to deliver a Senate victory for Democrat Jamie Davis over Republican Julia Letlow.

Figures from the Louisiana Secretary of State’s office showed 363,685 people had cast ballots during the first five days of early voting. Chervenak, a political analyst at LSU New Orleans, said participation during the first week had nearly reached the state’s entire early voting total for 2022. With two days remaining at the time of his assessment, he expected this year’s total to exceed the figure from four years earlier.

An analysis by the University of Florida’s Election Lab found that registered Democrats represented 43% of Louisiana’s early voters, compared with 39% for registered Republicans. Voters affiliated with minor parties or with no party affiliation accounted for 17%. The breakdown describes the party registration of those who participated in early voting.

Louisiana Democratic Party leaders said they were seeing substantial early voting gains compared with the previous midterm election. Party chairman Randal Gaines said Democrats would concentrate direct action in places where they believed participation could grow, including East Baton Rouge. Their turnout efforts also include Democratic leaning New Orleans.

Chervenak said Black voters appeared particularly enthusiastic. He attributed some of that energy to Republican efforts to redraw election maps this year, saying he believed the redistricting decisions had motivated voters who felt their influence was being diluted. Casting ballots, he said, offered those voters an opportunity to demonstrate that their votes mattered.

Even with that enthusiasm, Chervenak continued to favor Letlow in the contest to represent Louisiana in the U.S. Senate. He cited a predictive market that put her likelihood of winning at 92%, while describing her polling advantage as potentially only four points. His assessment was that the early Democratic participation would probably be insufficient to decide the race in Davis’s favor.

Chervenak said Republicans have historically turned out more strongly on Election Day, even when Democrats have participated in greater numbers during early voting. He expected Republican voters on Nov. 3 to reinforce Louisiana’s standing as a Republican state.

FOX 8 sought comment from Louisiana’s GOP about the early voting figures but had received no response as of 4 p.m. on Oct. 26. Louisiana’s early voting period concludes on Tuesday evening, Oct. 27.